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大行評級|美銀:全球貿易緊張及美國息率為香港地產行業帶來不確定因素
格隆匯 04-09 13:35

美銀證券發表研究報吿指,全球貿易緊張及美國息率的相關影響,為香港房地產行業帶來眾多不確定因素。潛在的負面影響包括香港經濟增長及辦公室需求受壓、短期內住宅平均售價及成交量下滑、及人民幣轉弱或令內地旅客購買力下降。另一方面,潛在利好影響包括美國經濟衰退或在短期內帶來更大規模的減息,這可能提升香港住宅的負擔能力、港元兑人民幣以外的貨幣走弱,可能減少香港零售銷售額流向日本,並吸引更多來自亞洲其他地區的遊客、及刺激消費可能有助內地商場。

行業上,美銀更看好經營非自由行的零售業,其次為經營自由行的零售業及住宅,最看淡寫字樓市場。個股方面,該行看好領展及太古地產,但對港鐵維持“跑輸大市”評級。該行將香港房地產行業2025至2027年的每股盈利預測平均調低2%,而目標價則平均下調4%。

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