出口反制概念逆勢爆火！金河生物7天4板，31億資金排隊搶籌
關稅衝擊全球，市場恐慌情緒濃厚，A股5211只個股下跌，1448只個股跌停。
市場大跌之際，僅出口反制、國產替代等少數概念股逆勢走強。
今日，金河生物一字板漲停，實現7天4板，報6.53元/股，總市值50.38億元，漲停成交額1.31億元，最高封單額爲31.14億元。
其他金黴素相關概念股走強，美農生物2連板，蔚藍生物一度漲停，回盛生物一度漲超10%。
反制第一先鋒
面對特朗普34%的高額關稅，中國官方硬氣迴應，中國企業拿起反制武器。
4月2日晚間，金河生物宣佈，鑑於近期美國政府對原產於中國的部分原料藥產品加徵關稅的政策前提，以及美國市場對金黴素預混劑產品的需求量較大且美國本土並無其他生產商，而公司爲全球主要的金黴素產品供應商之一的現狀，爲確保產品品質與服務不受影響，將適時調高金黴素預混劑產品在美國市場的終端銷售價格，力爭獲取更大盈利空間。
資料顯示，金黴素是獸用抗生素、添加劑主要品種，美國是畜牧業大國，年需求量超5萬噸，但其本土無規模化廠商，高度依賴進口，我國供應佔比超90%。
而金河生物作爲全球龍頭廠商，年產能5.5萬噸，全球市場份額約50%左右，議價能力較強，提價能直接增厚利潤。
對此，華鑫證券指出，從全球範圍來看，中國出口的金黴素產品具備極弱的替代性。金河生物獸用化藥金黴素全球市場佔有率爲50-60%，龍頭地位穩固。公司有望把握本次加稅帶來的漲價機會，兌現營收高增長預期。
業績拐點已現
在經歷3年的下滑後，金河生物的業績近兩年迎來好轉。
2020年-2023年，金河生物分別實現淨利潤1.17億元、9399.24萬元、7561.64萬元、8645.7萬元，同比-36.56%、-19.89%、-19.55%、14.34%。
去年前三季度，金河生物實現營收16.57億元，同比增長5.57%；淨利潤1.14億元，同比增長10.38%。
這意味着，金河生物去年前三個季度就賺到了近乎2020年全年的淨利潤，如果四季度情況不錯的話，其盈利情況有望回到2018年的水平。
接下來，金河生物計劃於4月26日披露2024年年度及2025年一季度報告。
展望未來，銀河證券認爲，隨着化藥產品滲透率的提升、疫苗產品逐步放量等，金河生物業績可期。
銀河證券預計，金河生物2025-2026年EPS分別爲0.24元、0.3元，對應PE爲19倍、15倍，給予推薦評級。
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