研報掘金丨申萬宏源:國泰君安盈利大幅改善,關注業務整合進展,維持“買入”評級
申萬宏源研究指出,國泰君安(601211.SH)2024年歸母淨利潤130.2億元,同比+39%;4Q24歸母淨利潤35.0億元,同比+369%,環比-22%。經紀及投資雙位數增長,管理費率壓降顯效。2024國泰君安實現證券主營收入327億/同比+20%。基於9月底以來,市場交投活躍度明顯改善以及公司投資收益率明顯回暖,因此上調股基交易額、投資收益率假設,從而上調盈利預測,預計公司25-27年的歸母淨利潤為213.4、182.4、259.0億元(原預測為143.3、170.3億元),同比分別+64%、-15%和+42%,國君與海通合併後,雙方業務整合將產生顯著的協同效應,有望全面提升獲客效率與價值變現能力,進而帶動新主體整體估值中樞上移,維持“買入”評級。
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