大行評級|高盛:上調招商銀行目標價至48.96港元 上調今年盈利預測
高盛發表報告指,在招商銀行2024年業績公佈後,將2025年的撥備前經營利潤和淨利潤預測分別上調3.4%及2.7%,以反映略有改善的淨利息收益率和最新的8%按年貸款增長指引,目標價由47.36港元上調至48.96港元,評級“買入”。高盛認爲,招行表現低於預期主要是因爲其股息支付低於預期,2024年和2025年上半年的派息比率基本持平。在其他條件不變的情況下,這可能因持續的資本累積而對股本回報率(ROE)構成潛在的下行風險。
相較於市場共識,高盛對所覆蓋銀行的基本面持更樂觀態度,特別是在淨息差和資產質量方面,這得益於政策支持和按揭資產質量的改善。此外,展望2025年下半年,該行對銀行手續費收入的按年增長保持信心,這受到低基數效應、信用卡業務潛在復甦以及資本市場持續改善的推動。
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