研報掘金丨中金:連連數字支付交易流水高增、盈利能力顯著提升,維持“跑贏行業”評級
中金公司研報指出,連連數字(2598.HK)2024年營業收入同比+28%至13.15億元,年內虧損收窄至1.67億元(vs.23年虧損6.5億元),調整後1EBITDA虧損收窄至2.8億元(vs.23 年虧損3.6億元),調整後利潤扭虧爲盈至7,869萬元(vs.23 年虧損4.0億元),業績高於我們預期、主因支付交易流水TPV 增長超出預期。境內外支付交易流水(TPV)高增、費率受業務結構影響有所下滑,毛利穩增。公司持續佈局包括數字化營銷、企業錢包等在內的新產品,增值服務收入同比+9.5%至1.5億元,當前處於投入期、毛利率及收入增速相對較低,毛利率降至19%、由於利潤率較低的虛擬卡業務增長影響,預計後續將持續改善。該行預計25年支付業務保持穩增、技術創新賦能突破業務邊界和服務能力。儘管當前全球貿易環境存在一定不確定性,但公司持續多元化業務佈局、加強全球牌照佈局和海外本地服務能力,提升產品能力、優化業務模式,對美國等單一市場依賴度相對較低,公司預計25 年支付業務仍將保持20%以上增速。在此過程中,公司也將重點關注AI 和區塊鏈技術。另外,出售連通部分股權完成,收穫現金回報、且有望分享合資公司長期發展紅利。考慮公司收入增速穩定且盈利在早期釋放階段,基於P/S 估值;公司當前交易於7.4/6.0x25/26e P/S,考慮市場情緒改善、上調目標價23%至14.5 港幣,對應9.0/7.3x P/S 及21%空間;維持“跑贏行業”評級。
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