研報掘金丨中金:維持萬華化學“跑贏行業”評級,目標價105元
中金公司研報指出,萬華化學(600309.SH)預吿2024年歸母淨利潤同比下降22.5%至130.3億元,主要是由於石化、精細化學品和新材料板塊盈利下降,以及4Q24公司計提資產減值所致。公司MDI業務盈利有望保持較好水平。目前聚合MDI/純MDI與原材料純苯、煤炭的價差分別處於2010 年以來73%/38%分位,整體MDI盈利處於相對較好水平。測算1Q25以來國內聚合MDI/純MDI加權毛利同/環比分別提升1,582/197元/噸。考慮到目前盈利處於週期底部以及2026年公司盈利存在改善預期,維持目標價105元,對應48%的上升空間和2025/26年22/16x市盈率,維持“跑贏行業”評級。
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