研研報掘金丨長江證券:予聯想集團“買入”評級,有望在AIPC領域持續保持領先
長江證券研報指出,聯想集團成立於1984年,自成立以來深耕 PC行業四十餘年,收購IBM後PC業務加速擴張,自2013年至今,聯想已成長爲全球PC銷量第一龍頭。早在 2016年,聯想就已經開啓轉型智能化之路,AIPC時代聯想技術積累雄厚,率先推出 10 餘款 AIPC佔據領先地位,同時通過五大特徵定義 AIPC,更注重消費者的使用體驗,有望在AIPC領域持續保持領先。此外,聯想的ISG業務、SSG業務與AIPC共同搭建起端雲協同,軟硬兼備的一棧式AI佈局體系。AIPC使產業鏈由Wintel聯盟掌控逐步轉爲終端品牌廠商掌控,端側模型的功能成爲影響用戶體驗的根本因素,而AI Agent未來有望成爲Windows系統的競爭者。端側廠商掌控產業鏈有望改善PC行業整體的利潤分配,使得聯想、戴爾等廠商能獲得更高利潤,並反哺產業鏈,加強設計環節的優化。IDG業務是聯想的核心營收來源,主要涵蓋PC、智能手機以及其他電子設備,受消費電子整體景氣度影響較高。短期來看,2020年居家辦公推動PC銷量達到階段高峯,而隨後需求被透支,銷量下滑拖累公司業績增速。2023H2開始需求逐漸回暖,公司業績延續復甦態勢。智能手機業務作爲公司IDG部門的重要補充,主要佈局razr品牌摺疊屏以及入門級至中端價格的機型,近年來在拉丁美洲、美國、日本等地銷量增長迅猛。在雲廠商資本開支高企,AI軍備競賽依舊持續,聯想實現了“端-邊-雲-網-智”新 IT架構的全面佈局,AI服務器有望放量,同時改善ISG 利潤水平。預計公司FY2025~FY2027實現歸母淨利潤15.15、18.13、25.04億美元,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
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