研報掘金丨中金:維持牧原股份“跑贏行業”評級,目標價56元
中金公司研報指出,牧原股份(002714.SZ)正站在新一輪高質量發展的起點。歷史上,牧原的跨越式發展穿越週期,較充分把握非瘟時期“防疫、豬價、資本”三大紅利,成長爲“大體量、低成本”稀缺生豬養殖龍頭。判斷24年資本端資本開支首次小於折舊,開啓重資產投入回報期;業務端則進入“向內求”元點發力2.0 階段,成長與價值屬性雙升。認爲牧原將持續引領中國生豬養殖新範式。相對估值方面,公司領先成本帶來超額頭均盈利,加之遠期出欄兌現度更強,相較同行隱含P/E更 低。絕對估值方面,當前市場並未充分預期牧原自由現金流轉正後,貼現價值增長貢獻的空間。維持“跑贏行業”評級及目標價56元。
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