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研報掘金丨中金:DeepSeek帶動硬件需求 上調中興浪潮信息等股目標價
格隆匯 03-06 14:22
中金公司發表報告指,得益於模型工程優化的創新,DeepSeek(下稱DS)-R1表現出領先的成本優勢和綜合性能,其開源策略也降低了AI前沿技術的獲取門檻,推升了下遊客戶對於AI大模型的本地部署需求。該行預期以一體機爲代表的私有化算力硬體景氣度有望向上。報告稱,在C端場景方面,DeepSeek-R1蒸餾技術實現輕量化模型突破。這些蒸餾模型在保持大模型性能的同時,減少了對顯存、記憶體和存儲的需求,適合在資源受限的終端設備上運行。中金認爲,PC是承載本地模型的重要終端,更高性能端側模型的部署,有望成爲AI PC產業升級的有力推手。B端場景方面:DS一體機是一種專爲大模型應用和部署設計的集成計算設備,可基於NV或國產硬件實現,其中國產算力芯片由於契合主流下遊需求,或成爲主要算力支撐。中金認爲, 當前DS一體機的 軟硬件協同仍面臨一些挑戰,但得益於DS模型優勢,以及一體機本地私有化、快速部署等優勢,DS一體機國內市場空間有望快速提升。DS一體機在滿足企業數據安全和合規要求方面具有優勢,對於政府、金融等數據安全要求較高的行業適配度高。中金預計,樂觀情形下2025年DS一體機市場規模有望達到540億元。相關公司包括頭部DS一體機供應商浪潮信息、中科曙光、超聚變(未上市)、中興通訊、聯想集團等。考慮到浪潮信息AI伺服器長期向好,該行基於35倍2025預測市盈率,上調公司目標價34%至63.07元,較當前股價有5%的上行空間。另外,考慮中興通訊的手機/伺服器等業務有望受益於AI產業趨勢,上調A/H股目標價15%及24%,至42元人民幣及29港元,相當於2025年20及13倍預測市盈率。
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