研報掘金丨華泰證券:寧滬高速為高速公路龍頭股,將A股下調至“持有”,維持H股“買入”
華泰證券研報指出,寧滬高速為高速公路龍頭股,路產位於經濟發達的蘇南地區。2020-2023年公司主要路段客車流量CAGR達到5.3%,與同期江蘇民用客車保有量6.1%的CAGR相近,客車受經濟週期影響較小。貨車與工業生產景氣度弱相關。2024年末,公司路產按收入加權平均剩餘收費期約為8.5年,主要路段或啟動改擴建以延長收費期限,未來車流量與費率均有提升空間,但投資支出增大或使資產負債率上升、對外融資需求增加。考慮公司未來資本開支較大,並且經歷2023-2024年上升後,公司A股股息率減去無風險利率的股息差已處於歷史中樞附近,將A股由“增持”下調至“持有”;考慮公司AH溢價率處於歷史高位,以及H股股息率對中資保險機構的吸引力,維持H股“買入”。給予A/H股目標價14.5元/11.0港元。
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