A股收評:Deepseek概念大退潮,影視股回調繼續!
2月18日,A股主要指數早盤小幅震盪,午後大幅跳水。
截至收盤,滬指跌0.93%報3324點,深證成指跌1.61%,創業板指跌1.98%。
全天成交1.83萬億元,較前一交易日縮量1455億元,全市場超4600股下跌。

盤面上,蛇年以來暴升的DeepSeek概念大退潮,盲盒經濟、穀子經濟板塊下挫,AI應用股集體走低,AIGC概念、智譜AI、Sora概念及多模態AI等方向領跌。電池板塊逆市上升,銀行、貴金屬等少數幾個板塊錄得上升。

具體來看:
DeepSeek概念大退潮,杭鋼股份、夢網科技、泛微網絡、日海智能、貝瑞基因、浙大網新等午後紛紛跌停。分析認為,雖然投資者對DeepSeek的長期價值依然看好,但也開始關注其短期風險,導致市場情緒分化。不過中信證券稱,Deepseek的開源生態有望加速AI在應用端的滲透與普及,預計投資情緒將從底層硬件端嚮應用端持續蔓延,中國互聯網資產有望進入價值重估週期。

影視股繼續回調,橫店影視跌超8%,歡瑞世紀跌超7%,光線傳媒收跌超6%。有分析指出,短期而言,《哪吒2》票房120億穩坐國產動畫C位,但細品數據:單日票房從峯值13億暴跌到不足5億,市場擔心“票房後勁不足”。對比漫威,《復聯4》票房28億美元(約200億人民幣),迪士尼市值僅因此波動3%,而光線市值卻因單片翻3倍。

教育股跌幅居前,豆神教育跌9%,昂立教育、創業黑馬跌超8%,國新文化、傳智教育、中公教育等跟跌。

銀行股走強,郵儲銀行、中國銀行收升超2%,工商銀行、交通銀行等紛紛上升。中信證券表示,基於對銀行商業模型風險預期和增長預期的再定位,疊加2025年經濟和政策的情景分析,銀行板塊估值仍有確定性上行空間。

電池股逆勢上升,昆工科技、星雲股份、杉杉股份、野馬電池等升停。消息面上,工信部等八部門印發《新型儲能製造業高質量發展行動方案》提出:方案要求加快鋰電池等成熟技術迭代升級,推動超級電容器、鈉電池等工程化和應用技術攻關,發展壓縮空氣等長時儲能技術。適度超前佈局氫儲能等超長時儲能技術,支持新體系電池、智能電池等前瞻技術基礎研究。

展望後市,DeepSeek引發了對中國資產的價值重估,高盛估計廣泛採用AI將在未來十年內每年提升中國企業每股收益(EPS)2.5%。改善的增長前景和可能的信心提升或許可以將中國股市的公允價值提高15-20%,並可能吸引超過2000億美元的投資組合流入。
高盛將MSCI中國指數的目標價提高到85和4700,意味着12個月的潛在上升空間分別為16%和19%。
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