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研報掘金丨中金:維持中遠海能“跑贏行業”評級,下調目標價至16.5元
格隆匯 01-13 15:10

中金公司研報指出,中遠海能(600026.SH)預吿2024年盈利同比增長17.2%,基本符合我們預期。VLCC供給緊張邏輯未變,影子油輪1制裁趨嚴或進一步增加對於合規市場的運力需求。供需有望進一步改善,行業週期向上,看好公司盈利彈性,低估值與股息提供底部支撐。全球油品消費需求仍保持穩定增長,Clarksons預計2025/2026年原油海運週轉需求同比+1.9%/+2.0%,認為後續若中國油品消費需求改善,以及美洲國家原油產量持續增長,長航線運輸佔比提升有望帶來海運需求進一步增長。根據我們預測,按照50%分紅水平,公司2025年A/H股股息率分別為4.8%/9.3%,為股價提供底部支撐。維持“跑贏行業”評級不變,同時考慮盈利預測調整及行業風險偏好提升,下調A股目標價9.3%至16.5 元/股。

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