大行評級丨摩根大通:近期市場回調幅度或擴大 或會對招商證券、東方財富等高啤打值券商添加壓力
摩根大通發表研報指,內地券商數據過去數週連續走弱,A股日均成交額由去年11月的2萬億元,進一步降至去年12月的1.6萬億元,再繼而跌至年初至今的1.2萬億元,至於保證金融資餘額較去年12月中下跌4%。 另一方面,去年12月內地IPO資金流出呈現温和復甦,中信證券IPO市場份額由2024年首九個月約21%,上升至2024年全年約21%。摩通預期,近期市場回調幅度或會在短期內進一步擴大,可能會對招商證券、東方財富等高啤打值券商添加壓力。該行建議,進行為期一個月買入中信證券H股,以及賣出招商證券H股的交易,主要由於中信證券的收入結構更加均衡,且IPO業務勢頭良好;相較之下招商證券對平均每日成交金額(ADT)的槓桿率更高,並且在去年第四季中表現最佳。
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