市場加大下週降息押注！美國11月核心CPI同比增長3.3%，符合預期
當地時間週三，美國11月CPI數據出爐，符合預期。
美國11月CPI同比增長2.7%，連續第二個月走高，升至四個月高位，符合預期的2.7%，前值2.6%；
11月CPI環比為0.3%，符合預期的0.3%，前值為0.2%。
11月核心CPI年率連續第三個月錄得3.3%，符合預期的3.3%，前值為3.3%；
11月核心CPI環比增長0.3%，符合預期的0.3%，前值為0.3%。
由於通脹數據基本符合預期，市場整體波動不大。
美國股指期貨延續升勢，標普500期貨合約上升0.4%，納斯達克100期貨合約上升0.6%。
美國國債收益率下跌，10年期美國國債收益率快速下行，跌至4.217%。
具體來看，食品價格環比上升0.4%，能源價格環比上升0.2%，二手車價格環比大幅上升2%。剔除能源服務的服務業價格環比上升0.3%。
經濟學家密切關注住房價格，這是服務業中最大的類別，也是近年來最持久的通脹來源之一。該指標10月上升0.4%之後，11月環比上升0.3%。
業主等價租金以及主要住宅租金均環比上升0.2%，為2021年以來最小升幅。
華爾街怎麼看？
CPI公佈後，市場加大了對美聯儲下週降息的押注。
據CME的FedWatch，市場預計美聯儲下週降息25基點的概率為97.7%，不降息的概率為2.3%。
對此，高盛分析師Whitney Watson認為，今日的CPI數據為下週的降息掃清了障礙。在今天的數據公佈後，美聯儲將開啟“靜默期”，他們對反通脹的進程仍有信心。新的一年（2025年）裏，美聯儲仍將進一步逐步放鬆貨幣政策。
CIBC Capital Markets的Ali Jaffery表示，通脹“從本質上看，情況還不算太糟”。
他分析，如果剔除二手車，核心商品價格當月僅上升0.1%；服務業通脹與住房通脹一起放緩。
不過，他也指出：“如果經濟增長不放緩，或總體通脹壓力不進一步降温，暫停和延長寬鬆週期的風險正在加劇。”
美國銀行證券經濟學家Stephen Juneau表示：“從基本面來看，我們認為通脹沒有實質性的上行風險。不過，考慮到關税、財政和移民政策變化，通脹的進展明年應該會停滯。”
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