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國泰君安:化工品作為經濟後周期板塊修復方向確定
國泰君安研報指出,油氣增儲上產,上游盈利保持增長。2024年以來地緣衝突支撐油價高位震盪,2023年前三季度三桶油上游板塊油氣產量保持增長,盈利同比保持增長。中海油、中石油繼續維持增儲上產、穩油增氣戰略目標。油服行業同比仍保持復甦節奏,主流公司前三季度收入端和利潤端均實現同比增長。中下游化工品仍在磨底期,關注復甦節奏。受新能源滲透率提升,成品油達峯等影響,成品油裂解價差承壓,化工品仍在磨底期。隨着各項刺激政策的推動,化工品作為經濟後周期板塊修復方向確定。隨着下游需求的回暖以及2025年新開工季的來臨需求有望復甦。
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