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天風證券:關注化工行業硬資產和景氣兩條投資主線
格隆匯 11-22 09:00
天風證券研報指出,國內化工在建增速2023年一度見頂、於2024年二季度已經回落至零值附近,階段性在建已經達峯。預期新增產能投放的壓力是抑制化工行業的盈利預期的主要因素,後續需要觀察需求端修復與供給端產能釋放節奏的匹配情況對盈利端的影響。另一方面,也觀察到產能供給結構經過多年優化逐步有序,龍頭及領先企業的產能競爭優勢擴大,建議關注硬資產和景氣兩條投資主線:一、聚焦高質量發展的“硬資產”,關注:萬華化學、龍佰集團等。二、景氣角度:1)景氣修復中找結構性機會:需求韌性強且有望逐步迎來景氣修復的農化、輪胎板塊,關注:雲天化、玲瓏輪胎等;2)製冷劑下游家電排產狀況良好,產品價格維持上行趨勢、供給配額制約束性強,關注:巨化股份等;3)代糖行業仍然以10%+的增速在增長,三氯供需穩定,雙寡頭競爭成長性行業,容易形成默契,有較大彈性,關注:金禾實業等。
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