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研報掘金|招商證券:下調騰訊音樂目標價至15美元 下調2025及26財年核心盈測
招商證券發表報吿指出,騰訊音樂第三季收入70億元,按年恢復7%的正增長(第二季下滑2%),符合預期。訂閲收入按年增長20%(第二季按年增長29%),符合預期。付費用户達到1.19億,按季增加200萬,略好於預期。ARPPU為10.8元,按季增加0.1元。非訂閲收入按年增長20%(第二季按年增長24%),略低於預期,主要是由於部分演唱會計劃的延遲,而廣吿收入保持穩健,增長速度超過訂閲收入。該行保持對騰訊音樂2024財年的預測大體不變,將2025及2026財年核心盈利預測分別下調8%和10%,主要反映公司戰略重點更多轉向ARPPU增長,訂閲用户淨增加較該行先前預測放緩;由於演唱會計劃的延遲,演唱會相關收入增長放緩;公司繼續在營銷、人才團隊和技術方面進行投資,導致營運費用較該行先前預測增加。該行預測集團收入2024及2025年按年增長2%和10%,核心淨利潤將分別按年增長24%和12%。基於盈利預測的調整,該行將騰訊音樂目標價從16美元下調至15美元,評級“增持”。
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