大行評級|大和:維持騰訊音樂“持有”評級 第三季業績基本符合市場預期
大和發表研究報吿指出,騰訊音樂第三季業績基本符合市場預期,雖然公司對明年的收入及盈利指引僅符合市場預期,但該行估計在內容成本槓桿及嚴格控制經營開支的情況下,公司的盈利能力或高於預期。該行提及,騰訊音樂明年音樂訂閲收入增長目標為16%,略低於市場及該行預測的17%至18%,公司預計季度淨增用户及每月平均每付費用户收入(ARPPU)的擴張速度均略低於預期。
不過,該行認為騰訊音樂對明年的非訂閲及社交娛樂收入增長指引勝預期。雖然今年第三季的非訂閲音樂收入因演唱會延期而遜預期,但相信該些演唱會將推遲至2025年舉行;加上廣吿業務的增長,明年非訂閲收入目標增長20%應可實現,並高於該行預期。管理層料社交娛樂收入的收入運行率在明年將穩定在今年第三季的水平。
另外,該行預測騰訊音樂明年毛利率將改善至43.5%,相對於第今年第三季為42.6%,並預期2025年的經營開支水平或低於公司指引。該行對騰訊音樂2025至2026年的收入預測上調2%,每股盈利上調2%至4%,維持對其“持有”評級,目標價46港元。
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