大行評級|摩根大通:下調中國銀行評級至“中性” 可能較同業受跨境貿易影響較大
摩根大通發表報吿指,宏觀背景具挑戰下,H股國有銀行的風險回報變得更為不利。如果內地政策反應超預期,A/H股國有銀行的表現可能會遜於增長型銀行。若政策反應令人失望,H股銀行的跌幅將較A股大,人民銀行的證券、基金、保險公司互換便利安排為在岸市場提供下行支持,但離岸市場則不然。
摩通把中國銀行評級由“增持”下調至“中性”,目標價由4港元降至3.7港元,因中行在國內對製造業的承擔最高,可能較同業受跨境貿易影響較大,因此易受中美貿易戰升級的影響。此外,其股價與人民幣的相關程度高於國企平均水平,因此人民幣貶值風險可能拖累股價表現。此外,管理層表示第三季部分非淨利息收入收益是由於美債收益率下降所致,但此趨勢已於第四季逆轉。
摩通同時亦把交通銀行評級由“中性”下調至“減持”,目標價由5.8港元降至5.3港元。因在人民銀行加強減息政策下,銀行存款將轉移至資本市場,令其在流動性及利率管理方面更為脆弱。
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