中信建投:龍頭白酒仍有較好的成長空間
中信建投指出,消費回暖方向確定,市場預期提振。近期隨着國家經濟刺激政策逐步落地,內需擴張的重要性得到提升,部分城市已經開始發放消費券促進消費。經濟數據看10月PMI已重回擴張區間,中央政府化債力度加大,企業運營環境將好轉,對消費拉動將逐漸顯現。 白酒龍頭估值領先修復,商務用酒需求彈性最大。本輪924政策以來,白酒估值領先於基本面修復,我們認為核心在於經濟環境的改善預期提振了企業的長期增長中樞,從DCF角度來看酒企內在價值得到大幅提高。短期酒企面臨的壓力仍未有明顯改善,但是向好方向確定,我們認為未來商務用酒的需求彈性方向最為明確。當前煙酒終端已經處於庫存低位,需求修復將能快速傳導至酒企,龍頭白酒仍有較好的成長空間。
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