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中信建投:諸多不確定性落地 鋁板塊有望率先上行
中信建投研報表示,上週美國大選、美聯儲議息會議及國內財政刺激、地方政府債務置換具體方案相繼落地。與特朗普當選相伴而來的激進的關税預期一度壓制大宗商品投資熱度,但美聯儲降息及國內公佈的財政刺激方案令市場滿意,宏觀環境中性樂觀。產業方面,氧化鋁價格繼續刷新價格高點,已有2家電解鋁企業因成本高企而進行檢修,加劇電解鋁緊張的供需格局。此外,中長期電解鋁供應失去彈性,而消費仍舊保持增長,電解鋁看升邏輯順暢。長期看升基礎牢固,短期有驅動,鋁板塊有望率先發起進攻。
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