In the early hours of the 6th, the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, proclaimed his triumph in the 2024 presidential election, marking the culmination of the electoral process in the United States. Trump assumed the esteemed office of the 47th President of the United States following a closely watched and fiercely contested electoral battle, prevailing over the Democratic nominee and incumbent Vice President, Kamala Harris. This historic achievement underscores Trump's distinction as one of the few individuals to hold non-consecutive presidential terms in American history.
As reported by the Associated Press, Trump has provisionally secured 267 electoral votes, while Harris has garnered 224 votes. Trump addressed his supporters at Mar-a-Lago, expressing gratitude for their unwavering support in his electoral victory and stating, "We must now begin the process of uniting our nation."
Following Trump's declaration of victory, noticeable fluctuations emerged in the U.S. stock market. The futures of the major U.S. stock indices continued to rise; Dow futures increased by nearly 2%, S&P 500 futures rose over 1.8%, and Nasdaq futures surged more than 1.7%. Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 1.50%, while the offshore Chinese yuan witnessed an intraday decline exceeding 900 points, breaching the 7.19 threshold. Trump Media & Technology Group experienced a significant overnight surge of over 40%, and Tesla recorded a night session surge of over 12%. Furthermore, Bitcoin surpassed $75,000 per coin, reaching a new record high with an intraday gain exceeding 8%.
The anticipated implementation of Trump's policy agenda following his inauguration is poised to have profound implications for the United States and the global landscape. Trump's policy proposals emphasize stimulating domestic demand, advocating for both monetary and fiscal easing, domestic tax cuts, imposing tariffs on foreign imports, tightening immigration policies, and achieving energy independence. These policies are likely to have inflationary effects, especially considering the unresolved supply-demand gap in the United States, potentially increasing long-term inflationary pressures in the country. Additionally, Trump's strict immigration policies and stance on technological sanctions against China are expected to impact global economic and political relations.
In terms of foreign trade, Trump may continue to advance his "anti-globalization" and "trade war" strategies, prioritizing short-term economic interests to secure trade benefits for the United States. Trump's victory is also anticipated to influence the Chinese economy and asset prices. The imposition of tariffs on all Chinese goods may initially affect Chinese exports, hindering economic growth. Regarding exchange rates, Trump's victory could exert downward pressure on the Chinese yuan. In the A-share market, escalating U.S.-China trade tensions may impede economic growth, affecting market sentiment and risk preferences, leading to predominantly negative consequences for A-shares.
Trump's reelection will bring forth a series of policy changes with profound implications for the U.S. economy, global markets, and international relations. Investors and global leaders are closely monitoring Trump's policy direction and how these policies will shape the future economic landscape.
