Trump's defeat could trigger delay in results announcement

Voting day for the 2024 US election is November 5, with the results expected to be largely finalized by noon GMT on the 6th. The election is highly publicized, not only because of the high name recognition of the two main candidates - Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump - but also because of the policy changes and international relations realignment it could bring. If Trump loses, it could trigger a series of legal and political controversies that could lead to delays in the announcement of the election results. In addition, problems with mail-in ballots could also lead to delays in the announcement of results, as the number of voters who vote by mail or early vote increases.

What else to focus on after the general election?

After the general election results are announced, there are still a few things to keep an eye on:

1. legal controversy recount: if Trump loses, will he accept the results of his defeat or mount a legal challenge, which could cause a delay in the announcement of the general election results. Historically, the 2020 election resulted in a four-day delay in the announcement of results due to problems with mail-in ballots. In addition, the possibility of a recount is also a factor in delaying the announcement of general election results.
2. Transition period for policy changes: After the election results are announced, a new administration will take office and bring about policy changes, particularly in the areas of the economy, foreign affairs, and defense. According to U.S. law, the presidential transition period begins on election day (early November) and ends with the swearing-in of the new president (late January), a span of about two and a half months. If the election results do not come out as expected, the transition period will be shortened.
3. Economic Policy Adjustment: The post-election economic policy adjustment will have an impact on the U.S. economy and foreign trade relations for up to four years. Currently, the U.S. stock market has shown weakness; the 10-year Treasury yield from September 16, 3.61% (closing price) slowly rose to November 1, 4.38%.
4. Sector-specific impacts: The election results will have an impact on government bonds, stock markets outside the U.S., equity sectors and investment styles, which will be particularly pronounced in the three to six months following the election. If Trump is elected president, Republican control of Congress favors U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar, but disfavors non-U.S. stock and bond markets, especially emerging market debt. On the equity side, bank stocks are the clear winners, benefiting from both rising yields and potential regulatory relief.
5. Interest rate inversion repair: does it signal a recession? This is a matter of concern. The latest jobs report showed cracks in the ever-promising labor market as well, suggesting that the apparent calm in the US economy is actually a hidden risk.

The outcome of the 2024 U.S. election will also have a profound impact on U.S. domestic and foreign policy, as well as a significant influence on the global situation, especially the development of U.S.-China relations. The incoming administration may reassess its international alliances and foreign relations, possibly strengthening or weakening cooperation with other countries. Whether Trump or Harris is elected, the basic narrative framework of U.S. strategy toward China and U.S.-China relations is certain and will continue to be extended, differing only in the focus and style of the new administration's handling of relations with China.