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方正證券:估值及情緒底部 關注白酒中長期發展韌性
格隆匯 11-05 09:11
方正證券研報指出,報表加速出清白酒板塊基本面磨底,品牌內部分化加劇,期待後續政策落地後經濟積極恢復,風險釋放後關注2025年企業目標制定需求改善情況。白酒板塊自二季度起報表降速,淡季酒企重心轉向維繫行業價格體系,控貨挺價維持渠道健康流轉,三季度、四季度預計延續財報端風險釋放趨勢,基本面處磨底階段,品牌間分化加劇。分價格帶來看,三季度高端白酒經營穩健,次高端及區域酒分化加劇,高端酒品牌虹吸作用明顯,高端禮贈需求相對穩定+渠道品牌力強的頭部品牌當前現金流表現及經營兑現均較優;次高端受商務宴席等場景弱復甦影響較大。板塊基本面磨底,期待後續政策落地後經濟積極恢復。白酒目前已經作為順週期代表性板塊,與宏觀經濟恢復預期高度相關,行業呈現擠壓式增長中預計分化將進一步加劇,白酒板塊經營穩健性優先,紅利資產屬性凸顯,估值及情緒底部,關注中長期發展韌性。建議關注:五糧液、瀘州老窖、山西汾酒等。
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