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研報掘金|中金:下調港交所目標價至440港元 預計第三季度盈利按年增加7%
格隆匯 10-15 10:40

中金髮表研究報吿,預計港交所今年第三季度收入按年增加6%,按季持平於54.1億港元;剔除投資收益後,主營業務收入按年升8%,按季下跌1%至41.5億港元;盈利將按年增加7%,按季持平於31.5億港元。中金表示,市場情緒提振帶動季末各類產品交易活躍度顯著提升,並支撐今年第三季度主營業務收入表現。另外,息差穩健及外部投資收益改善,可能部分抵消利率下行對投資收益負面影響。該行預計港交所今年第三季度投資收益將按年升2%,按季升5%至12.3億港元。

中金認為,海外流動性邊際寬鬆及潛在經濟政策持續出台,可能進一步催化港股交易情緒、為港交所盈利及估值提供下行保護。另外,在2025年中樞假設下,若日均交易金額(ADT)每提升10%,該行測算將帶動港交所淨利潤提升8.6%,若ADT預期持續提升將進一步打開港交所估值上行空間。基於成交假設調整及2025年税收政策變化,中金將港交所2024及2025財年的盈利預測,分別下調2%及6%,並相應將其目標價下調8%至440港元,維持“跑贏行業”評級。

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