研報掘金|交銀國際:預計港股金融和可選消費板塊仍將是市場角力點
交銀國際發表報吿指,在10月8日經歷了港股市場大幅波動之後,該行在港股10月報中強調了對於後市的繼續看好,但同時也強調了港股的走勢會面臨高波動、高分化。在此情況下,有必要結合港股的持倉面來研判後市。該行將港股的持股分為外資券商、南下資金、在港中資系券商、互聯網券商四個重點大類,具體計算其持倉規模,並將其持倉具體彙總到板塊層面。該行計算了這幾個組別持股市值的港股市值佔比,該行發現幾個樣本組的持股市值佔比都在上升,意味着此輪上升,中資、外資都在買入。
該行估測了各樣本資金的超欠配的相關變化。中資系普遍超配港股金融板塊,外資系則完全相反,金融板塊是其最大的低配,可選消費板塊則是其最大的超配。自9月23日以來,各路資金在買入的同時,也積極調整結構,不論中資或外資普遍在大幅減少與基準指數的偏離。這輪上升中,“調結構”也迅速發生。中資、外資等不同偏好的資金配置都在集中對其板塊配置進行某種程度的“中性化”,這使得調倉成為短期“擁擠交易”。該行預計金融和可選消費板塊仍將是市場角力點,而核心驅動力仍有賴於基本面+政策面雙輪驅動。
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