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研報掘金|中金:維持恒隆地產“跑贏行業”評級 目標價上調至7.43港元
格隆匯 10-11 14:16

中金髮布研究報吿稱,維持恒隆地產“跑贏行業”評級,考慮近期港股市場風險偏好改善,上調目標價11%至7.43港元,對應10.5倍2024年目標市盈率和7.0%的2024年股息收益率,隱含7%上行空間。今年1-9月公司購物中心銷售額整體同比下降15%(1H24同比-13%),其中次高端場、上海外高端場和上海高端場分別同比持平、-8%和-21%(1H24分別同比+1%、-6%、-20%)。拆解背後驅動因素,公司認為年初至今會員總數及到訪頻次同比仍然有增,但人均消費錄得雙位數下降拖累整體表現。

研報指,截至1H24,公司在管項目中六大高端品牌門店共26家,較2019年末增117%(對比相關品牌中國大陸門店總數同期增長40%),以門店數量計的市場份額達約10%;考慮到待開業的杭州恒隆廣場以及存量項目調改動作,該行認為後續該份額或仍有提升空間。該行認為高端品牌濃度提升有望提振公司經營效率:若以2019年非奢品牌銷售額坪效為基數,公司披露2019年奢侈品牌銷售額坪效為其13倍、1H24升至19倍(同期非奢品牌坪效升至1.3倍)。

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