國金證券張弛:10月A股反彈開啟,可重點關注中盤成長及消費
國金策略首席分析師張弛表示,展望十月份A股行情,顯著“寬貨幣”引導下階段性反彈開啟,接下來投資者可重點關注中盤成長及消費。張弛指出,系列貨幣政策“組合拳”出台,對沖居民負債端壓力進而改善資產負債表。疊加9月政治局會議釋放積極信號,涉及貨幣、財政、地產、資本市場以及就業等多重領域,後續增量政策可期。“寬貨幣本質在存量房貸利率的下調帶來居民負債端壓力下降,將有效改善居民資產負債表。”張弛説。張弛預計,本輪市場反彈行情持續期約為1個季度,美國“硬着陸”確認後或逐步結束。對應至風格層面,降息等系列政策旨在帶動居民資產負債表改善、促使信用預期回升,這將延伸為兩個重要投資方向:一是信用回升拉動居民消費預期回暖,二是市場增量資金上升將會重點利好成長方向。“因此,十月份投資者可底倉配置黃金、創新藥,反攻首選成長的TMT、醫藥生物等,尤其是電子、計算機等。”張弛説。
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