中東衝突加劇!高盛看多,油價未來何去何從?
中東局勢進一步升級,油價短期或面臨上升的可能性。
地緣政治風險
黎巴嫩真主黨與以色列之間的衝突日益加劇,此前雙方曾互相發射火箭彈,加劇了人們對中東地區更大範圍衝突的擔憂。
當地時間9月28日,黎巴嫩真主黨證實,真主黨領導人納斯魯拉(Hassan Nasrallah)在以軍對黎首都貝魯特的空襲中身亡。
中東緊張局勢加劇可能會對全球原油供應構成威脅。
受此影響,WTI原油最新上升近1%,收於每桶68美元上方,布倫特原油上升至每桶72美元附近。
在最新的報吿中,高盛指出,石油市場當前缺少戰爭風險溢價。
高盛分析師Lina Thomas分析了原油市場的四個短期積極驅動因素:1)全球貨幣政策的寬鬆;2)原油庫存仍在被消耗;3)油市倉位和估值仍然較低;4)石油市場尚未將地緣政治動盪的重大風險考慮在內。
高盛的另一分析師Lindsay Matcham也認為,衝突的進一步升級可能會對市場產生重大影響,特別是如果它涉及霍爾木茲海峽可能關閉,這可能會導致這裏的油價飆升。
擔憂供應增加
儘管地緣政治會影響油價,但長期來看,油價的走勢還是要看市場供需平衡的情況。
近期,石油的供應端迎來重大變化,沙特、利比亞可能都將迎來增產。
有報道稱,沙特阿拉伯計劃放棄100美元的油價目標,將在今年晚些時候增加產量,以搶佔更多市場份額。

同時,利比亞各派系簽署了任命央行行長的程序協議,這將使該國恢復大量石油供應。
此外,OPEC+最近將原定的增產計劃從10月推遲到12月。但分析師猜測,由於油價如此低迷,該組織可能會再次推遲增產。
由於供應增加的預期,本週五,布倫特原油期貨收升0.53%,報每桶71.89美元;WTI原油期貨收升0.75%,報每桶68.18美元。
以周來看,布倫特原油收跌約3%,而WTI原油下跌約5%。

對此,加拿大帝國商業銀行私人財富高級能源交易員Rebecca Babin表示:“隨着市場吸收利比亞供應的回升,並預計OPEC+可能在12月退出,原油價格正試圖穩定下來。”
需求端上,中國本週推出了一系列刺激措施,提振了股市和一些大宗商品的價格。
Rebecca Babin評論稱:“中國的刺激措施在很大程度上被忽視了,市場更關注供應增加的直接影響,這些刺激措施帶來的潛在需求提振可能需要更長時間才能實現。”
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