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研報掘金|中金:金融政策組合拳對內銀息差影響中性 看好農行、建行、工行及招行等
格隆匯 09-25 13:17

中金髮表報吿表示,昨日國新辦舉行新聞發佈會介紹金融支持經濟高質量發展有關情況,內地降準降息支持經濟。中金認為內地金融政策的組合拳體現出明確的穩增長、穩信心信號,並且在支持實體經濟和資本市場的同時充分考慮了對銀行息差和資產質量的影響,助於在銀行穩健經營的同時實現和實體經濟的共生共榮;對大型銀行的注資有助於保持信貸的穩定增長、提高對於風險的抵禦能力,注資後對於每股分紅的攤薄程度取決於銀行利潤能否增長超過股份增長,如果銀行在更強的資本能力基礎上促進實體經濟改善、降低銀行信用成本,對於每股分紅的攤薄效應也有限。

總體而言,該行出內銀6至12個月內需要關注的三個中期風險點(實體經濟流動性和資產質量、房地產存量債務、居民早償)在本輪政策中都有針對性的應對,對銀行基本面而言關鍵是觀察一系列政策對於長期經濟預期改善的實質作用。該行建議投資者選擇股息較高、資產質量穩定的銀行,包括農行、建行、工行、招行、匯控等。

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