大行評級|大摩:低息利好香港地產股 新鴻基地產及領展估值吸引
摩根士丹利指,香港在受惠於美息下降及內地經濟增長加快具獨特優勢。該行預計香港樓價在今年跌8%後,明年回升6%。縱使住宅價格自2021年調整三成,香港住宅可負擔比率目前仍處歷史高端的50%,但假設明年按揭利率回落至3.2釐下,有關比率料改善至45%,且租金扣除供樓回報亦將轉正。另一方面,該行料按揭利率下降不大可能支持新加坡住宅銷售,料明年當地住宅價格跌5%,基於嚴格金融規定及高印花税,且公共房屋換樓客減少及住宅供應增加。該行預料,物業交易恢復將使新加坡凱德集團(Capitaland)為減息週期初的贏家。香港地產股方面,新鴻基地產及領展估值吸引,每股盈利及每股派息可在利息支出減少下增長。
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