消費股大逆轉，酒ETF、飲食ETF、食品飲料ETF升超3%
大消費板塊全線走高，白酒、乳業、食品方向升幅居前，酒鬼酒、洽洽食品升停。
ETF方面，鵬華基金酒ETF升超4%， 鵬華基金香港消費ETF、嘉實基金必選消費ETF、華夏基金食品飲料ETF、南方基金消費ETF南方、銀華基金食品ETF、華安基金食品飲料ETF基金、廣發基金消費ETF龍頭、天弘基金飲食ETF、博時基金主要消費ETF、匯添富基金消費ETF、華寶基金食品ETF、華夏基金消費30ETF招商基金、食品飲料ETF升超3%。
據國家統計局，2024年8月份，社會消費品零售總額38726億元，同比增長2.1%。按消費類型分，8月份，商品零售額34375億元，同比增長1.9%；餐飲收入4351億元，增長3.3%，其中限額以上單品商品零售額轉負至同比-0.7%，是拖累社零增速的原因。分產品看、8月糧油食品類、飲料類、煙酒類分別同比+10.1%、+2.7%、+3.1%，飲料和煙酒類增速環比今年前7個月有所回落。
從白酒價格來看，數據顯示，茅台批價9月來有所回落，尤其整箱價格，與前期的發貨節奏以及產品結構有關，渠道反饋公司主要以6瓶整箱發貨為主，由於禮品等場景減少，預計需求承壓，價格回落。五糧液8代批價保持在940元左右，經銷商已按新價格打款，全年綜合成本預計980左右，動銷相對穩定，有剛需支撐，同時1618產品在較大的渠道和終端政策支持下增長較快。全國化次高端品牌，汾酒青20和劍南春有剛需支撐，但價格有壓力。區域性品牌表現分化，各地均有不同程度消費降級趨勢，能卡位在當地主流價格帶併成為暢銷產品的企業，表現相對佔優。
從白酒板塊基本面看，白酒中報分化加劇，報表風險逐步釋放。整體來看，一方面，白酒行業收入降速但依舊具有韌性，行業內公司分化加劇，其中高端酒增速穩健，地產酒略有分化，次高端增速下滑，另一方面，報表質量不如以前，如現金回款、合同負債、應收票據/應收款項融資等指標均或有不足,報表風險逐步釋放，高端酒方面，貴州茅台Q2收入、利潤增速分別為17%、16%，五糧液Q2收入、利潤增速10%、11%，兩大香型龍頭增速表現穩健，前瞻指標優異；瀘州老窖Q2收入、利潤增速為11%、2%，因税收等原因利潤增速低於收入增速；茅五瀘表現穩健。
華金證券認為Q2白酒企業面對宏觀環境的壓力下，依舊具有韌性。
對於白酒板塊，德邦證券表示，受宏觀經濟影響，行業整體需求仍有壓力，但頭部集中、分化加劇的大趨勢不變。在二季度降速承壓後，中秋期間需求進一步承壓，企業表現分化，頭部酒企相對佔優，後期企業或將面臨下調全年及來年目標的壓力。從中長期看，當下增長速度不是最為重要的，企業的戰略定力和執行力更加重要，維持良性健康的渠道質量，才能在行業重回上行週期階段更具增長彈性。結合潛在分紅水平和中長期的結構性空間，頭部公司具備性價比和長期投資價值。
德邦證券認為，大眾品Q2業績普遍承壓，但頭部企業二季度普遍進行了庫存去化，對乳製品、調味品和部分食品公司，預計Q3收入會呈現環比改善，但Q4的持續性還要驗證。雙匯發展受益豬價Q3環比上升，屠宰及凍品業務預計盈利改善，帶動整體盈利環比改善，具備高股息防禦屬性。
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