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華泰證券:下半年進入傳統旺季 預計海運各子板塊運價同環比有望上行

華泰證券研報表示,2024年上半年出口需求向好疊加紅海繞行,集運/幹散/成品油運價及港口吞吐量同比增長;原油輪受需求偏弱和OPEC減產負面影響,運價同比下滑。2024年上半年上海出口集裝箱運價指數SCFI/波羅的海乾散運價指數BDI/原油運價指數BDTI/成品油運價指數BCTI均值同比表現+128%/+59%/-4%/+21%(其中,2Q24運價均值環比+21%/+1%/-8%/-12%,集運環比走強/幹散持平/原油及成本油環比走弱)。2024年上半年全國港口貨物/外貿貨物/集裝箱吞吐量同比增長4.6%/8.8%/8.5%。下半年進入傳統旺季,預計海運各子板塊運價同環比有望上行,港口吞吐量同環比或將進一步增長,推升航運港口個股盈利。

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