華泰證券:電視行業內銷有待“以舊換新”催化 出口趨勢仍較強
華泰證券研報表示,站在當前時點展望電視行業2024年下半年,我們認為在內銷市場,存量更新佔比較大,考慮到國內以舊換新政策各省市配套措施有望落地,且Mini Led背光電視佔比提升,或推動產品迭代。但上半年高性價比電視品牌份額表現更優,基於Mini Led背光技術的普及,或帶動其產品價格快速下探,更快推出高質價比產品的品牌或更能提升市場份額。而在出口市場,4Q23基數不高,且拉美、歐洲、北美趨勢積極,我們預期未來數月電視出口量增速或有望保持較高水平,但考慮到面板價格已經在7月環比下行,且電視出口均價在7月也同比下降,出口額表現或略弱於出口量表現。上半年雖然體育大年對收入拉動較為明顯,但面板成本壓力顯現,且激烈競爭態勢下,終端價格提升幅度偏弱。考慮到後續以舊換新對內銷的支撐以及成本壓力的改善,下半年行業景氣度及盈利能力或有望修復。
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