中信建投:商業航天航發等板塊增長較快 看好軍工結構性復甦
中信建投證券研究報吿指出,商業航天航發等板塊增長較快,看好軍工結構性復甦。目前軍工正處於新舊週期的拐點,年內業績和訂單的拐點,以及處於估值低點,具備顯著投資價值。我們判斷,隨着軍隊人事調整和相關制度性改革的逐步落地,“十四五”後期訂單有望逐步下發,積壓疊加新增需求,2024Q3之後行業訂單和業績增速有望企穩回升,或將開啟第二輪結構性復甦。配置方面建議圍繞三條投資主線,一是傳統軍工裝備產業方面,建議重點關注有訂單修復預期、有業績支撐的航發產業、船舶產業以及航空航天產業;二是新域新質裝備方面,建議關注圍繞低成本、智能化、體系化三大特點的行業,包括低成本精確制導彈藥、無人系統以及新一代智能化作戰底座;三是新質生產力方面,建議關注應用市場空間廣闊、行業處於快速成長期、國產化率較低的行業,主要為商業航天、低空經濟、大飛機、增材製造。此外,軍貿出海等方向也值得關注。
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