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國泰君安:港股韌性已現推薦佈局,向科技要彈性
國泰君安發文稱,港股資產已係統性低估,隱含較高預期回報率,具備較高配置性價比,配置向恒生科技要彈性,向高分紅要確定性。海外方面,流動性拐點漸近,而前期港股市場對降息定價不足,後續有望受益於分母端增量資金迴流。國內方面,前期分子端悲觀預期已在港股市場中充分計價,回調充分後港股市場配置性價比突顯。2024年以來恒科指數盈利預期持續向上提升,疊加分母端助推,看好成長彈性。行業配置推薦:1)行業格局出清後利潤率與回報提升的恒生科技與互聯網龍頭;2)前期對地緣政治擔憂的負面因素計價充分後,面臨本土化需求加速、景氣邊際改善的新質生產力方向:半導體/電子等;3)穩定類高分紅中期底倉配置:公用/銀行/通信。
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