天風證券:把握消費板塊波動率階段放大機會 長期仍看“耐心資產”
天風證券研報表示,把握消費板塊波動率階段放大機會。第一,8月以來的A股行情展示出市場對內需政策預期的高度敏感性:1)在7月30日的政治局會議通稿中,提振消費相關表述位於各領域細分政策之首,提出“把服務消費作為消費擴容升級的重要抓手,支持文旅、養老、育幼、家政等消費”。2)7月25日,《關於加力支持大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新的若干措施》中明確對涉及領域的1500億元資金,對內需支撐政策的中央與地方的資金分擔作出了安排。第二,內需類消費板塊在2024年下半年可能反覆的衰退交易+美國大選交易中相對出海鏈或佔優。第三,最新2024年第二季度數據顯示消費板塊主動減倉較多,擁擠度已明顯緩解。長期來看,高股息超額反轉條件或有兩類:一是長期國債利率中樞不再下行,二是高股息板塊股息率進一步提升受阻。長期風格切換需耐心等待更多右側信號,具備壟斷性、稀缺性的高股息資產有望獲得價值重估。
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