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研報掘金丨國投證券:長城汽車7月出口再創新高,維持“買入-A”評級

國投證券研報指出,長城汽車(601633.SH)7月批發銷量9.1萬台,環比-7%、同比-16%。其中7月新能源批發量2.4萬台,環比-7%、同比-17%,燃油車批發量6.7萬台,環比-7%、同比-16%。認為7月銷量整體符合預期,環比下滑主要系6月坦克集中交付後短期波動以及皮卡受需求影響銷量下滑影響。新能源越野行業空間大,坦克系列銷量表現亮眼,後續產品矩陣完善有望進一步貢獻業績增量。7月出口銷售3.8萬台,環比基本持平、同比+41%。由於6月出口銷量中包含部分受運輸影響延遲確認的銷量、Q2月均出口量約3.6 萬台,故我們判斷7月出口實際仍有增長且再創新高。2024年出口銷量有望達到40-50萬輛。考慮到公司2024年新能源越野和出口業務增長下銷量結構明顯優化,盈利有望顯著上行,該行給予公司2024年25倍市盈率,對應6 個月目標價38.2元/股,維持“買入-A”評級。

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