研報掘金丨華創證券:維持貴州茅台“強推”評級,中期吸引已足
華創證券研報指出,當下避免恐慌,中期吸引已足,維持貴州茅台(600519.SH)“強推”評級。價值投資始終要在“好生意、好公司和好價格”三者之間權衡風險收益比,但投資茅台或將迎來三者可兼得的難得窗口期。認為即便以深度價值思維,當下也可“稱重”茅台的底線價值,一是從股息率角度,當前股息率已超過十年期國債,且承諾分紅率仍有提升空間,二是以重構思維去看存酒價值,估測茅台當前存酒價值加在手現金已超1.7萬億。以中性偏謹慎的假設,未來五年盈利複合增速10%左右,即在2028年左右實現2400億收入、1200億利潤,同時假設常規分紅率逐步提升至75%、估值修復至中樞25 倍PE,由此測算投資茅台未來五年一倍的收益空間可期待,在低利率時代對長期投資者已足夠有吸引力,泛紅利風格或將是行情啟動的市場催化。
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