大行評級|麥格理:預測蒙牛上半年業績表現疲弱 目標價下調至23港元
麥格理髮表研究報吿指,由於牛奶需求疲弱及市場競爭激烈,預測蒙牛上半年業績表現疲弱,收入及純利預期將按年下跌6%及24%。但考慮到今年上半年行業原奶價格進一步下跌逾一成,麥格理相信原材料價格下降,足以抵銷市場競爭所帶來的負面影響,蒙牛上半年核心經營利潤率可望提升0.3個百分點,符合集團經營溢利率提升0.3至0.5個百分點的指引。該行又指,全脂奶粉存貨減值虧損及牧場投資虧損等不利因素預期不會延續至明年,行業或最快於今年下半年可達到供需平衡的狀態,將蒙牛今年度收入及盈利預測下調4%及20%。麥格理預期行業需求疲弱下蒙牛將控制資本開支,並加強股東回報,全年股息率料達3.8%,相應將目標價從32港元下調至23港元,評級仍為“跑贏大市”。
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