證券板塊大爆發，券商ETF、金融科技ETF華夏和證券ETF飆升6%
今日，證券板塊大爆發，華鑫股份、天風證券、太平洋、錦龍股份和國盛金控升停。
ETF方面，華寶基金券商ETF、金融科技ETF華夏、國泰基金證券ETF、華夏基金券商ETF基金、華寶基金金融科技ETF等升超6%。
從同花順證券指數的走勢圖來看，從7月25日，板塊連續上升，已經走出5連陽的行情了。
券商板塊的上揚又是跟合併消息有關。市場傳言，中金公司和中國銀河將合併，據21財經報道，中金公司投資者關係部門的相關人士稱，沒有這樣的消息，以官方消息為準。“我們沒我們自己都不清楚。”
從券商一方面是近期A股持續縮量盤整，要恢復交投熱情就需要現有板塊大升帶動人氣迴歸，而作為“牛市旗手”的券商板塊，自然義不容辭。通常來説，萎靡一段時間的股市往往都是由證券板塊打起反攻第一槍。
另一方面，A股7月是半年度業績的預吿期，進入8月就是業績正式披露期。前期紅塔證券、東興證券發佈業績預吿均顯示出業績邊際改善的信號。
2024年上半年，紅塔證券預計實現歸母淨利潤約4.49億元，同比增長52.27%；東興證券預計實現歸母淨利潤5.30億元到6.30億元，同比增長51.47%到80.05%。
申萬宏源非銀團隊分析，預計券商板塊上半年主營收入及淨利潤延續同比下滑、環比改善趨勢，同比降幅較一季度明顯收窄。分業務來看，自營仍是券商上半年業績主要驅動，預計貢獻券商板塊主營收入的41%。
從公募基金今年二季度的持倉變化來看，主動型基金增持保險、減持券商，非銀板塊延續低配，24Q2證券板塊主動管理型基金重倉持股比例0.27%，維持環比減持趨勢，重倉持股比例降至歷史底部
平安證券認為，監管持續關注資本市場高質量發展，重視投資者獲得感提升，資本市場和券商重要性將提升。在加速建設一流投資銀行和合規風控要求更高、監管力度強化的導向下，證券業供給側將持續優化。當前證券指數估值僅1.00xPB，具備較高性價比和安全邊際
目前A股有多隻也券商板塊相關的ETF，以規模排名前十分別有國泰基金證券ETF和華寶基金券商ETF，最新規模分別是299.1億元和205.93億元。南方基金證券ETF基金、天弘基金證券ETF和易方達基金香港證券ETF的規模分別是62.43億元、44.18億元和31.72億元。
國泰基金證券ETF跟蹤的指數是證券公司，該指數的前十大大成分股分別是中信證券、東方財富、海通證券、華泰證券、國泰君安、招商證券、東方證券、申萬宏源、興業證券和方正證券。
東興證券研報認為，資本市場改革節奏和宏觀經濟復甦趨勢將成為主導券商價值迴歸的核心因素，業務模式創新將為券商盈利增長開啟想象空間。整體上看，併購重組仍是行業年內主線，更加看好行業內頭部機構在中長期創新發展模式和外延式併購趨勢下的機會。
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