The financial market will usher in a series of major events and data releases this week. Investors need to pay close attention to the interest rate decisions of various central banks, the financial reports of technology giants, and the performance of global economic data. Here are the main highlights from this week:

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super central bank week

Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early morning of August 1 (Thursday). Although the June CPI data was in line with expectations, it was higher than the target and turned negative for the first time in four years. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. However, many senior Fed officials have recently hinted that a rate cut may be imminent to balance economic growth, price stability and labor market health.

Wall Street generally expects the Federal Reserve to remain on hold and keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 5.25%-5.5%.

Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will release a clearer signal of interest rate cuts in its July policy statement, laying the foundation for the first interest rate cut of the year in September. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is less than 7%, while the probability of a September rate cut is as high as 90%.

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Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision

The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on the morning of July 31 (Wednesday). Markets expect it to keep interest rates unchanged. Despite this, the market is still full of expectations for the rate hike at this meeting. The yen has surged in the past two weeks. In a report on the 26th, Deutsche Bank raised its assessment of the possibility of Japan raising interest rates, believing that the probability of raising interest rates exceeds 50%.

The recent strength of the yen has prompted speculation that the Bank of Japan may delay raising interest rates, but high inflation and possible yen depreciation have led to calls from politicians to tighten policy. In addition, the Bank of Japan policymakers have hinted that they will announce a reduction in the scale of bond purchases at the meeting and announce the quarterly outlook for prices and economic growth.

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Tech giant earnings season

This week, U.S. technology giants Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon will release their second-quarter earnings reports.

Last week, following the market shock caused by Tesla and Google's financial reports, investors were particularly concerned about whether Microsoft's financial report on Tuesday could revive market confidence with its outstanding performance in the fields of cloud computing and AI. Although analysts generally raised Microsoft's performance expectations, the market's expectations for Doubts about the return on AI investments in technology stocks are growing, and Microsoft needs to manage spending carefully to avoid making the same mistakes again.

Microsoft: The market has doubts about the return on its AI investment, but analysts have generally raised their performance expectations, and Microsoft needs to manage expenditures carefully. According to data compiled by Visible Alpha, Microsoft's second-quarter revenue is expected to be US$700 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%; net profit is US$21.88 billion, or US$2.93 per share, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%.

Meta: Expect significant revenue and earnings per share increases. Focus includes user growth, advertising market demand, capital expenditure and business progress. In addition, Meta faces possible heavy fines from the European Union, and investors are looking forward to an official response on the conference call.

Apple: Pay special attention to iPhone sales in China and AI strategy progress, which will directly affect its stock price trend. Visible Alpha data shows that Apple’s second quarter revenue is expected to be US$900 million, an increase of 3.1% compared with the same period last year. Net profit is expected to be $20.64 billion, or $1.34 per share, an increase year over year.

Other technology companies: Many technology giants including AMD, Qualcomm, ARM and Intel will also disclose their results this week.

Global economic data release

In the coming week, a series of major labor market and key economic data will be released, including:

U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate in July

The July non-farm payrolls report and unemployment rate data will be released on August 2. Previous data in June showed an increase of 206,000 jobs. The market expects that 185,000 jobs will be added in July. The unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%, still the highest level in two and a half years. Average hourly wages will increase by 0.3% month-on-month, remaining flat. The former value.

lthough this report will most likely not affect the July interest rate decision, it is expected to solidify expectations that the labor market will continue to cool and open the September interest rate cut window.

The Eurozone releases preliminary second-quarter GDP estimates and July CPI inflation report

On Tuesday, July 30 and Wednesday, July 31, the Eurozone will release preliminary estimates of second-quarter GDP and preliminary estimates of July CPI inflation report. These two data will provide important clues as to whether the European Central Bank can cut interest rates again in September.

Analysts predict that the Eurozone's GDP will grow by 0.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, up from 0.4% in the first quarter, and by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, slightly lower than the previous 0.3%. Growth momentum is also likely to slow in Germany, Italy and Spain.

The adjusted CPI in July is expected to fall 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4% from the previous value, and the core adjusted CPI may drop slightly to 2.8% year-on-year.

China releases official and Caixin manufacturing PMI

The official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs for July will be released on July 31 (Wednesday) and August 1 (Thursday) respectively, and economic activities are expected to maintain a recovery trend.

Data released earlier by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5, the same as last month, and the manufacturing boom was basically stable. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and higher than the critical point. The non-manufacturing industry continued to expand. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point.

Investors need to pay close attention to the release of these events and data in order to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner and seize market opportunities.