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大行評級|瑞銀:內銀上半年業績可能好於預期 預期農業銀行、中信銀行等表現較理想
瑞銀髮表報吿指,大部分內銀將於8月中旬公佈第二季和上半年業績,預期表現將按季略有改善。該行認為主要的利好因素是存款成本下降導致淨息差趨穩。該行指,第二季底止,貸款年增長可能放緩至9.2%,預期上季不良貸款比率大致穩定,且信貸成本下降11個基點。對於國有銀行,收入/撥備前利潤/税後淨利潤料按年平均分別下降1.9%/3.1%/0.3%。部分股份制銀行上季營收料較去年同期減少5%,可能受到服務費收入較去年同期減少11.3%拖累,而信貸成本較去年同期減少22個基點則有助於支持税後淨利潤增長0.3%。部分地區性銀行維持成長動能,料第二季營收/撥備前利潤/税後淨利潤平均較去年同期增長4.3%/7.5%/12.6%,但各家銀行的成長動能不盡相同。瑞銀預期農業銀行、中信銀行、南京銀行及重慶農村商業銀行將表現較理想,當中料農行表現突出,料上季收入/撥備前利潤/税後淨利潤均錄得按年正增長。
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