中信證券:煤、氣制聚烯烴龍頭公司將迎來量價齊升
中信證券指出,聚烯烴包括聚乙烯和聚丙烯,是五大通用塑料中市場最大、增速最快的兩種。近年來聚烯烴自給率持續提升,但2023年合計淨進口量仍達1415萬噸。聚烯烴生產擁有三大路線,其中油制佔據國內主要產能,而煤、氣制受益於低成本國內煤炭及美國乙烷資源享受路線之差帶來的超額利潤,且多重壁壘為存量資產構築堅固護城河。展望未來,我們認為油煤氣價差將結構性保持,而供給壓力將弱於預期。油制路線盈利已至行業歷史谷底,隨供需兩端共振聚烯烴價格彈性可期。同時疊加產能快速擴張,煤、氣制龍頭公司將迎來量價齊升。
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