研報掘金丨中金:消費品以舊換新措施可拉動GDP增長0.3個百分點 或能提升家電銷售15%
中金髮表報吿表示,發改委、財政部印發《關於加力支持大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新的若干措施》的通知,提出統籌安排3000億元左右超長期特別國債資金,加力支持大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新。這顯示積極的財政政策進一步落地,總量上該行預計可能能拉動GDP增長0.3個百分點左右。這次財政加碼有兩個變化值得關注,一是與以往類似支持措施相比,這次中央財政承擔比例上升,二是超長期特別國債不只是支持投資(設備更新), 也支持消費(消費品以舊換新),重點關注汽車、家電的政策提振效果。從具體措施來看有以下幾個關注點。一是擴大了政策支持範圍,將支持範圍擴大到能源電力、老舊電梯等領域設備更新以及重點行業節能降碳和安全改造,新增“支持老舊營運船舶、老舊營運貨車報廢更新”。二是降低了超長期特別國債資金申報門檻,不再設置“項目總投資不低於1億元”要求,支持中小企業設備更新。三是提高了支持力度,提高農業機械、新能源公交車等更新補貼標準,提高設備更新貸款財政貼息比例,對符合“條件的經營主體的銀行貸款本金,中央財政貼息從1個百分點提高到1.5個百分點,貼息期限2年,貼息總規模200億元”。該行計算受財政貼息的貸款本金約為6667億元。針對家電以舊換新,措施提出:“對個人消費者購買2級及以上能效或水效標準的冰箱、洗衣機、電視、空調、電腦、熱水器、家用灶具、吸油煙機等8類家電產品給予以舊換新補貼。補貼標準為產品銷售價格的15%,對購買1級及以上能效或水效標準的產品,額外再給予產品銷售價格5%的補貼。這個補貼標準高於2009年家電以舊換新的10%的標準。該行按照15%的補貼比例和彈性來計算,或能提升家電銷售15%,約佔2023年社零的0.3%。
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