光伏ETF、光伏50ETF、光伏ETF基金升超3%,板塊全線爆發
光伏板塊全線爆發,昱能科技、銘利達20cm升停,福萊特、福斯特集體封板,東方日升、天合光能、晶澳科技、晶科能源、TCL中環升超5%。
ETF方面,廣發基金光伏30ETF、浦銀安盛基金光伏龍頭ETF、天弘基金光伏ETF升超3.6%;平安基金光伏ETF平安、華泰柏瑞基金光伏ETF 、銀華基金光伏50ETF、華安基金光伏ETF指數基金、鵬華基金光伏ETF基金、匯添富基金光伏龍頭ETF、國泰基金光伏50ETF升超3%。

消息面上,7月24日,在2024光伏行業供應鏈發展(温州)論壇上,中國光伏行業協會發出“加強標準電池的權威溯源能力”“加強不同企業之間電池的比對測試和技術交流”等6點倡議。截至目前,隆基綠能、天合光能、正泰新能等超過10家光伏企業簽約。
國家能源局發佈1-6月份全國電力工業統計數據。其中,1-6月光伏新增裝機102.48GW,同比增長30.68%;6月光伏新增裝機23.33GW,同比增長35.56%。根據蓋錫諮詢數據,1-6月光伏組件累計出口128.69GW,同比增長30.0%;6月,中國組件出口量為23.68GW,環比上升2.0%,同比上升42.2%。
從基金持倉看,2024年6月30日光伏設備行業市值達1.16萬億,在全A股市值佔比為1.37%,而從公募基金重倉持股數據來看,2024Q2期末公募基金重倉持股總市值中光伏佔比為2.10%,超配0.74pct,環比下降0.57pct,擁擠度環比顯著下降。
對於光伏板塊,華泰柏瑞基金李茜、李沐陽在光伏ETF二季報中表示:
“回顧二季度,光伏板塊震盪下行。高分紅板塊對於成長板塊的虹吸效應持續顯著。事件上,光伏展的火熱無法抵消東南亞新一輪雙反調查帶來的不確定性影響,全球除美國外需求良好,國內需求在二季度稍不及預期,產業鏈價格持續回落。
展望下半年,當前唯一可以確定的是行業出清速度正在加快,但是時間可能還較為漫長。當前硅料價格已經接近一線廠商成本線,主產業鏈全面進入虧損狀態,但各大組件廠商資金仍較充沛。國內需求稍不及預期,海外需求超預期,需求整體打平,雙反調查一定程度上影響市場情緒。一般來説,行業出清底部股價可能領先基本面見底,期待下半年我們能見到底部反轉信號。”
中原證券表示,從已經披露的中期業績預吿來看,光伏行業各環節中報業績將大幅下滑或普遍虧損。光伏行業裁員、停工檢修、停產事件相繼發生,行業去產能進行中。目前光伏產品價格跌破成本,主產業鏈各環節面臨較大盈利壓力,將加速行業優勝劣汰。光伏板塊估值處於歷史低位。短期光伏個股二級市場股價呈超跌反彈走勢,但趨勢扭轉仍需基本面支撐。具備雄厚資本實力、成本優勢、技術優勢頭部企業預計能夠渡過週期低谷,並將持續成長。中期建議關注光伏玻璃、一體化組件廠、多晶硅料、鈣鈦礦電池設備、電子銀漿等細分領域頭部企業。
太平洋證券認為,光伏大底部逐步清晰,重視龍頭海外拓展:1.重視光伏大底部佈局機會。目前中上游價格基本築底,企業持續虧損承壓,中尾部料企離場風險加劇;主產業鏈有望在2024年下半年實現深度出清,供需有望在2025年實現初步重塑。2.產能走出去進入新階段:重視中東等市場。產能出海是新一輪週期爭奪海外市佔率的關鍵。
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