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大行評級|高盛:料香港全年零售租金將跌5% 偏好九龍倉置業及長和等

高盛發表報吿指出,在港府取消樓市辣招後,加上年初的降息預期,支持該行所覆蓋的香港綜合企業股份於去年第二季以來累跌20%至30%後,於今年4至5月份短暫表現較好。然而,5月中旬以來數據並無顯示出太大的改善,如寫字樓空置率仍高,在某些情況下更出現惡化,如零售銷售和銀行貸款增長疲弱,加上減息預期推遲,令有關股份回吐大部分升幅,年初至今股價累跌10%至20%,但太古股份公司A(因持續回購股份)、長和與長江基建集團(長建擬在英國第二上市,以及預期長和於港口與歐洲電訊業務方面的盈利將強勁復甦),與恒基地產(受惠農地轉換)除外。

該行對行業全年前景預測作出調整,目前料零售租金將跌5%(原預期升3%),主要由於香港本地人出境旅遊及內地遊客分流至日本或韓國的影響大於預期;寫字樓租金看跌7%(原預期跌3%),因金融業需求疲弱,政府或公營機構增加招聘不足以彌補空置率的上升。該行繼續偏好盈利從低基數回升可見性較大的公司,如九龍倉置業及長和;股息具可持續性的公司,如太古系及港鐵;更直接受惠於樓市寬鬆措施的新鴻基地產。

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