國泰君安:鈹將成為商業聚變堆價值量最大的部分
據國泰君安證券研究,鈹,未來商業聚變堆的價值量之王。隨着可控核聚變託卡馬克裝置從“等離子體控制”進入“氘氚燃料反應”階段,鈹將成為商業聚變堆價值量最大的部分,佔比達30%-40%。鈹在託卡馬克中的應用有兩處:①中子倍增劑佔比80%,鈹的潛在競爭者是鉛,但目前看很難替代;②第一壁材料佔比20%,但這部分未來可能被鎢替代。在中子倍增劑材料中,鈹是最優的選擇。中子倍增劑是用來增加中子總數,提高與鋰原子核反應的機率,可供選擇的材料有鈹和鉛。相對於鉛,鈹的中子閾能更低,即中子在撞擊原子時會攜帶能量,激發鈹倍增中子所需的能量低於鉛,因此鈹的中子倍增效率更高。同時,聚變堆包層模塊工作温度高,固態鉛熔點低易熔化,使得其難以應用;鈹熔點高,不存在類似的風險。此外,鉛的密度大,其作為中子倍增劑時的包層模塊更重,對聚變堆結構和材料提出更高要求。在第一壁材料中,目前以鈹為主,未來可能被鎢材料替代,但第一壁的鈹用量僅佔商業聚變堆鈹總用量的20%,影響有限。核聚變打開上限,鈹的基本盤在於軍工、航空航天等領域。
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