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中信建投:下半年鋼廠利潤有望在需求改善和成本下移雙重利好驅動下有所回升

中信建投證券鋼鐵行業2024年下半年投資策略指出,1. 當前鋼鐵產業聚焦的方向主要有三點:(1)繼續實施粗鋼產量調控。(2)大力發展高性能特種鋼等高端鋼鐵產品,推進廢鋼循環利用,支持發展電爐短流程鍊鋼。(3)加快鋼鐵行業節能降碳改造及氫冶金等低碳冶煉技術示範應用。限產是遏制鐵礦石價格,提高行業利潤的有效方式。2. 今年以來,汽車、造船、家電、能源維持去年的高增長態勢,直接、間接出口解決了地產週期帶來的階段性過剩難題。3. 展望金九銀十,我國出口數據持續超預期,隨着天氣轉涼和專項債發行提速,項目資金到位好轉,基建項目存在集中趕工可能,價格上行概率較大。而原料供給相對過剩的局面也將維持,鋼廠利潤有望在需求改善和成本下移雙重利好驅動下有所回升。

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