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睿遠基金趙楓二季報出爐,新進一家保險股

睿遠基金趙楓旗下管理產品睿遠均衡價值三年持有混合二季報出爐,傅鵬博最新管理規模119.15億元,二季度前十大持倉為:中國移動、騰訊控股、寧德時代、三諾生物、萬華化學、偉明環保、思源電氣、中國太保、美團-W 和中國財險。

從持股變動看,相比較於一季度末持倉,中國太保新進前十大重倉股行列,華潤啤酒退出。趙楓在二季度減倉了中國移動,但中國移動仍為第一大重倉股。思源電氣與美團則被大幅度賣出,美團港股在二季度被減持90萬股,持倉數量環比下降20.93%;思源電氣已是續第二個季度被減持,環比倉位減少近半。寧德時代、三諾生物、萬華化學、偉明環保、中國財險的持股數較上一期均有所增加,騰訊控股的持股數不變。

趙楓在睿遠均衡價值三年持有混合二季報中稱:“二季度A股市場呈現衝高回落,上證綜指單季下跌2.43%,但深證成指下跌達到 5.87%,中證1000更是下跌達到10%。市場不僅存在明顯的風格差異,行業表現也出現巨大分化,截至7月5日收盤,萬得二級行業指數年初以來表現最好的銀行板塊上升近 20%,其次是公用事業和能源,均超過15%,而表現最差的軟件與服務下跌近30%,零售業下跌28%,半導體、製藥均下跌超過20%。

分化如此巨大的行情主要由幾個因素驅動:首先是宏觀經濟表現仍然相對温和,沒有出現大家希望的強勁反彈回升,尤其固定資產投資和社零總額表現仍然偏弱,顯示社會整體預期較為謹慎,投資者避險情緒濃厚,持倉轉向收入和利潤穩定性強、估值低、分紅水平高的標的;二是增長放緩,估值結構進一步調整,成長股股價和估值雖然在過去幾年已經經歷了大幅回調,但企業盈利增長速度也出現明顯下降,而且部分企業自由現金流水平較差,派息能力低下,在當下更注重安全和現金回報的趨勢下,估值持續承壓。

二季度,我們也繼續調整持倉結構,減持了成長放緩、估值偏高、自由現金流較弱的標的,也減持了市場預期較高、股價升幅較大的資源類公司,增持了低估值、自由現金流優秀、經營前景穩定的標的。

二季度市場避險情緒抬升,使得股價表現進一步分化。伴隨股價上升,國有大銀行、電力煤炭石油等能源類公司、電信運營商等公司的隱含回報持續下行,投資者似乎已不太在意相關公司的商業模式及其盈利的穩定性,給予了短期現金回報很高的關注度。

如果結合公司盈利質量和長期空間看,當前對高股息公司的追逐似乎已有一些趨勢意味,而非完全從價值角度出發。相反的,一些真正的行業龍頭白馬公司,伴隨着其股價低迷,這批公司的股息率已接近或高於無風險利率(如果我們把當前銀行理財和長期國債利率視為無風險利率的兩個參考指標),考慮到其中有些公司的成長潛力和優秀的商業模式,其隱含的長期回報水平可能已經明顯高於當前市場追捧的一些高股息公司。出於對未來前景不確定的擔憂,市場當前對風險和成長極為厭惡,但長期看真正具備全球競爭力的企業有很大可能可以應對未來經營環境的挑戰,穿越週期從而持續創造價值。 

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